Mortgage Rates Update: Technically a Sting Week… But Barely

📹 Watch the full update here:

Nothing really happened this week in the mortgage world.

Well… the calendar did flip to a new year. But with the markets officially closed on Thursday — and unofficially pretty quiet the rest of the week thanks to a lack of major data releases — there just wasn’t much for bond traders or rate markets to react to.

Technically (and that word matters), mortgage rates did worsen this week. So by the rules of my Honey vs. Sting weekly update… this one counts as a sting.

But let’s keep perspective:
👉 The move was extremely small — the kind of change that barely shows up on a long-term chart. So while it’s “technically” worse, it’s not something most borrowers would even notice day-to-day.

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Big Data Is Coming: Jobs + Inflation

The quiet stretch won’t last long. We’ve got two major economic reports lined up:

📊 Monthly Jobs Report — Friday, January 9

The forecast is calling for just 57,000 new jobs created in December, which is a pretty low number compared to what we’ve seen over the past couple of years. If that plays out — or comes in weaker — it could signal softening in the labor market… and markets tend to react strongly to that.

🔥 Inflation Report — Tuesday, January 13

Just a few days later, we get the next inflation update. And inflation remains one of the biggest drivers of mortgage rates.

Because these two reports land so close together, there’s a good chance the market doesn’t fully commit to reacting to the jobs report until inflation data confirms (or contradicts) the story.

So buckle up — the calm may not last.

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“What Do You Think Rates Will Do This Year?”

I get asked this constantly — and here’s my honest take:

👉 Rate predictions are mostly useless.

2025 ended much lower than it began, but for that trend to continue from here, we’ll likely need at least one of the following:

✔️ A more balanced federal budget (less borrowing = less pressure on bonds)
✔️ A meaningful weakening in the jobs market
✔️ Inflation moving clearly and sustainably below 2%
✔️ Or even a combination of two or more of these

Without one of those key ingredients, big downward moves in mortgage rates are harder to justify.

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What Do You Think?

I’d love to hear your thoughts:

💬 Do you think any of those things will happen this year?
Or is there something else you believe could bring mortgage rates lower?

Drop your perspective — I read every comment.

Thanks for following along, and I’ll see you next week. 🐝