I normally film these updates on Friday, but this week I had to wait for the weather to clear so I could safely open the hive and gather a few more bees — because we’re having a thing today. And yes… that “thing” is a sting. Mortgage rates worsened slightly last week.

The move wasn’t major and stayed well within the recent trading range. We could dig deep and find a technical reason for the shift, but in reality, it doesn’t change the bigger picture. The important story is what’s coming next.

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🎥 Watch This Week’s Honey vs Sting Update

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📉 A Quick Look at This Week’s Rate Movement

Mortgage rates ticked higher last week, but the increase was minor and not outside the range we’ve been trading in for several weeks now. These smaller swings are fairly normal when markets are waiting for bigger data or events — which brings us to the main driver of next week’s momentum.

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🏛️ All Eyes on the Federal Reserve (Tuesday & Wednesday)

The Federal Reserve meets this week for its FOMC meeting, and they’re widely expected to cut the Fed Funds Rate another 0.25% on Wednesday afternoon.

But here’s what matters even more:

🔹 The “Dot Plot”

This is the Fed’s summary of economic projections — essentially a visual chart of where each voting member believes the Fed Funds Rate is headed over the coming months and years. This projection can have a bigger impact on mortgage rates than the rate cut itself.

🔹 Powell’s Press Conference

The tone, the language, and the Fed’s outlook on inflation and economic stability often move mortgage pricing more than the actual policy change. Markets react not just to what the Fed does, but to what it says about the future.

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🍯 Could Next Week Bring Honey Instead of a Sting?

We’ll be watching closely. If the Fed signals a more dovish long-term outlook, or if the dot plot suggests a lower rate trajectory than expected, mortgage rates could improve.

As always, it’s not about predicting the market — it’s about being prepared when opportunities show up.

Until then, that’ll do it for today.
See you next time — hopefully with a jar of honey instead of a handful of bees.